KBank Subsidiaries and ASEAN Economic Strategy
•
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Litigation Process
Litigation process in Thailand takes about 2-3 years
Litigation Process
Under
Negotiation
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Period
Negotiate, await approval, document
preparation & lawyer process
Approximately 2 months
Pre-court (Notice)
Issue notice & court filing
Approximately 2 months
In Court
Trial / wait for court ruling
Execution
Collect payment ruled by court or
foreclose
Public Auction
Liquidation process
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
Approximately 9-18 months
Approximately 3 months
Approximately 6-9 months
K
KASIKORNTHAI
KBank Credit Cost Calculation
Credit Cost
Credit Cost
=
Provisioning Expense
Average Loans
Provisioning Expense
= (Probability of Default (PD),
Loss Given Default (LGD),
Exposure at Default (EAD))
Provisioning expense
largely depends on PD,
which is driven by the stage
of the economy
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Probability of Default (PD) Model Calibration
■High historical default rate in bad year higher provision in following year
1) Observe Historical
Default Rates: Historical
default rates over business
cycle are observed
2) Calibrate PD Model
The PDs are calibrated
based on historical default
rates
3) Apply PDs to Calculate
Provisioning Expense
Provisioning Expense
= ƒ (PD, LGD, EAD)
PD+= f (Historical Default Rates (DRT-1, DRT-2, ..., DRT-N), Other Factors)
% Default Rates
239 bps
204bps
175bps 174bps
% Credit Cost
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016
2017 2018 2019
2020F*
* Credit cost in 2020F may reach or exceed the peak level in Y2017
Actual Default Rate (LHS) Forecast Default Rate (LHS) Credit Cost (RHS)
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