Morgan Stanley Investment Banking Pitch Book
Project Roosevelt
• "After uneven results throughout
the year, performance of
Manhattan hotels notably declined
in November and December,
resulting in a revenue per
available room ("RevPAR")
decrease of 3.0 percent in the
fourth quarter. For the year,
Manhattan's RevPAR declined for
the first time since 2009."
• "While average daily rates ("ADR")
increased marginally in October,
minor declines in occupancy levels
offset these gains. In November
and December, both ADR and
occupancy levels decreased,
compared to year-ago levels,
resulting in sizeable RevPAR
declines. ADR was the primary
factor contributing to declining
RevPAR performance in the fourth
quarter, declining 3.3 and 3.7
percent in November and
December, respectively. Overall,
Manhattan hotels experienced
both decreasing occupancy and
ADR in 2015, resulting in a
RevPAR decline of 2.3 percent for
the year."
- PWC Manhattan Lodging Index
4Q15
Morgan Stanley
LODGING CAPITAL MARKETS OBSERVATIONS
Lodging Sector Recent Performance / Outlook
Tier 1 Comps / REIT Peers
AV / NTM EBITDA
15.0x
14.0x
13.0x
12.0x
11.0x
10.0x
9.0x
Feb-14 Mar-14
Avg TIER 1
Source Capital IQ
PKF Growth Forecasts
2016E
U.S.
as of 3Q 2014
Occ RevPAR
5.9% 0.1% 5.8%
ADR
May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16
Avg Lodging REIT
A to 3Q 2014
New York 4.6% 0.9% 5.6%
A to 3Q 2014
Miami 6.6% -0.4% 6.2%
A to 3Q 2014
LA
5.4% 0.5% 6.0%
A to 3Q 2014
Source PKF Hospitality Research
as of 1Q 2015
Occ RevPAR
6.3% 0.2% 6.5%
ADR
0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
3.5% -0.3% 3.2%
(1.1%) (1.2%) (2.4%)
5.5% 0.0% 5.5%
(1.1%)
0.4% (0.7%)
5.3% 0.1% 5.4%
(0.1%) (0.4%) (0.6%)
as of 3Q 2015
Occ RevPAR
5.9% 0.4% 6.3%
ADR
0.0% 0.5%
Strictly Confidential
0.5%
2.1% -1.7% 0.3%
(2.5%) (2.6%) (5.3%)
3.2% -2.8% 0.3%
(3.4%) (2.4%) (5.9%)
5.9% 0.4% 6.3%
0.5% (0.1%) 0.3%
ADR
11.0x
as of 4Q 2015
Occ RevPAR
6.5% -0.5% 5.9%
0.6% (0.4%) 0.1%
3.5% -1.0%! 2.5%
(1.1%) (1.9%) (3.1%)
3.5% 2.5% 0.8%
(3.1%) (2.1%) (5.4%)
7.0% 1.0% 8.1%
1.6%
10.7x
0.5% 2.1%
10View entire presentation