Investor Presentaiton

33 Updated macro scenarios and scenario probability weightings led to an increase of ECL allowances in Q2 Three scenarios for ECL modelling GDP growth assumptions Q2 2022 (Q1 2022) • Positive 10% (15%) probability Base 60% (60%) probability Negative -30% (25%) probability 3.5% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.6% 1.8% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 1.4% 1.5% -0.2% 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 OECD 2024 Sweden 2022 2023 2024 The upside potential is limited, and the positive scenario assumes a faster resolution of supply side problems and prices normalising more than expected, reinforcing the base effects that are the main drivers of an inflation downturn. . In the base scenario, the war in Ukraine, continued high energy prices and higher interest rates have significant economic impact and GDP growth forecasts have been lowered for 2022. However, a soft landing is expected supported by a number of positive forces. New fiscal stimulus measures will provide short-term support for growth in the euro area. Supply side problems currently driving inflation will eventually ease and the real up interest rates will remain low despite key rate hikes. The negative scenario reflects the downside risks of reversals in central bank policies. Factors that may be underestimated include the interest rate sensitivity of the economy, such as the impact of rates and yields on share and home prices, and a stronger and more protracted inflation upturn requiring further central bank actions. The possible need for energy rationing in Europe and China's economic headwinds are other downside risks. Probability-weighted ECL allowances: SEK 8.6bn 100% probability of positive scenario: -3% ECL allowances 100% probability of negative scenario: +3% ECL allowances Source: SEB Nordic Outlook May 2022. SEB

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