Scotiabank Financial Overview Q3/21
Housing Market
Population Growth
Housing Market Supply Conditions
2.0
annual % change
Canada
United States
1.10
Ratio of total home completions on 18-
Euro Area
Japan
United Kingdom
1.00
month rolling basis relative to
Italy
population change
1.5
0.90
0.80
1984-present avg.
1.0
0.70
0.60
0.5
0.50
0.0
0.40
0.30
-0.5
08 09 10 11 12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Haver.
Housing: Sales-to-Listings Ratio
91
85 88
94 97 00 03
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada.
06
09
12
15
18
21
Government Support of Households
2.5
arrears rate, %
100
sa sales-to-new listings ratio, %
90
2.0
80
70
1.5
60
50
1.0
10
40
30
0.5
20
10
0.0
0
20
88 90 92 94 96 98
00
02
04 06
08
10
12
14
16
18 20
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
Hypothetical arrears rate on mortgages simulated by
BoC for 19% fall in GDP in 2020.
Arrears without existing household
support measures
Arrears with existing support measures
21
22
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada Financial System Review.
20
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