Investor Presentaiton
2021 INVESTOR DAY
Coal volume scenarios
Aurizon's first two scenarios are based on current and upside Asian demand trends
1 Commodity Strong
2020
2030
2040
Higher seaborne coal demand from Asia & accelerated GDP growth
No new climate change policies implemented
No Australian mine / port constraints
2 Current Economics
2020
2030
AURIZON.
2040
Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF-BF) share of crude steel
production retained as dominant method of steel production in Asia
Coal-fired power plants maintain typical economic life and new capacity limited
to South East Asia and those currently under construction (globally)
No Australian mine / port constraints
Key assumptions
2020
2040f
Key assumptions
2020
2040f
GDP growth, Asia (CAGR to 2040)
~4.0%¹
Steel production, India
BOF-BF share, Asia
100mt²
81%3
Coal-fired power generation, China
Coal share of electricity mix, Asia
Australian share of seaborne market
4,859TWh4
59%4
30%5
~280mt
-75%1
~3,300TWh
-20%1
-40%
GDP Growth, Asia (CAGR to 2040)
Steel production, India
~3.5%¹
BOF-BF share, Asia
100mt²
81%3
~250mt
-75%1
Coal-fired power generation, China
Coal share of electricity mix, Asia
Australian share of seaborne market
4,859TWh4
~3,200TWh
59%4
-20%1
30%6
~40%
1. Selected nations: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, South East Asia (including Indonesia); 2. World Steel Association; 3. World Steel Association (2019 data); 4. International Energy Agency, Electricity Information 2020 (South East Asia; 2018, all other nations:
2019); 5. International Energy Agency, Coal 2020 (2019 data)
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