Scotiabank ESG and Financial Performance Update
Economic Outlook in Core Markets
REAL GDP (ANNUAL % CHANGE)
Forecast¹
Country
2010-20
Average
2021
2022
2023
2024
Full
Full
Q1E Q2F Q3F Q4F
Q1F Q2F
Q3F
Q4F
Year
Year
Canada²
1.6
5.0
3.4
2.1
1.1
0.3
0.5
1.0
0.1
0.7
1.5
2.1
1.1
U.S.
1
1.8
5.9
2.1
1.6
1.9
1.0
0.3
1.2
Mexico
1.7
4.7
3.1
3.9
1.7
17
0.6
0.3
10
0.1
0.2
0.8
1.5
0.6
16
1.6
0.1
10
0.2
1.9
3.0
1.3
Chile
2.5
11.7
2.4
(0.6)
(1.4) (1.0)
0.0
(0.8) 1.7
2.8
2.9
3.9
2.8
Peru
3.1
13.3
2.7
(0.4)
3.0
224
2.1
2.4
1.9
=1
19
3.1
2.0
1.5
21
2.1
2.2
Colombia
2.7
11.0
7.3
3.0
0.5
0.6
1.5
1.5
2.6
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.5
PAC Average
2.5
10.2
3.9
1.5
1.0
10
0.6
11
1.1
1.1
1.9
1.9
19
2.2
2.9
2.2
1 Source: Scotia Economics. US and Canada forecast as at May 18, 2023, Pacific Alliance countries forecast as at May 19, 2023; 2 Q1/23 GDP data for Canada is an estimate as of May 18, 2023
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