Irish Sovereign Green Bonds Update
Low interest rates coupled with reversion to growth may
see helpful "i-g" snowball effect on debt ratios
With low rates locked in, Ireland's "hurdle
rate" for a positive snowball effect is low
20%
15%
10%
Histogram of Ireland's recent growth history
9
8
(2001-2020)
Nominal GNI* grew by
more than 4% in 14 of
last 20 years
5%
0%
-5%
TTT
-10%
-15%
-20%
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
i-g
Growth (GNI*)
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022f
Average Interest Rate
2024f
0
16
5
+
Number of years
2
1
3
Average interest rate
likely between 1-2%
for next few years
<-8%
-6-4%
-4-2%
Gníomhaireacht Bainistíochta an Chisteáin Náisiúnta
National Treasury Management Agency
Source: CSO; Department of Finance forecasts, NTMA analysis
GNI*
-2%
0-2%
2-4%
4-6%
%8-9
Annual Growth rate
GDP
GG Revenue
8-10%
10-12%
12%+
28
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