A World-Class Investment in Food Security
Leading Potash Producers Are Rewarded with >8x EBITDA Multiples
EBITDA Scenarios (1)
(US $M)
Upside Case (3)
>$1.5B
EV/EBITDA Comparables
(As at March 29, 2022)
12
11
10
10,1x
11,9x
2023E
9,5x
CFR Brazil
US$800/t KCI
Base Case(2)
CFR Brazil
~US$506/t KCI
~$1B
6
8
7
5,9x
60
5,7x
7,5x
7,0x
5
4
3
~$350M
Downside Case (4)
2
CFR Brazil
US$215/t KCI
1
0
Mosaic Yara
Intrepid Nutrien
ICL
Compass SQM
8.2x
Financial projections, forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions or expectations which are believed by management to be fair and reasonable at the time they were prepared and were arrived at after careful consideration. Readers are
cautioned that such financial projections, forecasts or forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond management's control. There are a
number of factors that could affect the future operations of Brazil Potash including without limitation: changes in demand, industry competition, legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments, economic and financial market conditions including but not limited to
the current COVID-19 global pandemic. These factors and risks could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the financial projections, forecasts or forward-looking statements available on this website.
Source: Management Estimates, Bloomberg; Notes: (1) Illustrative EBITDA figures in Real USD$2022 terms based off run-rate production, inflation factor of 5.8% applied from 2021 to 2022, terminal outlook held
constant after 2046 (2) Base Case US$513/t Long-term price and netback forecast based on CRU estimates as at August 2022 provided in Real US$ 2021 Values for calendar years 2029 to 2051 with CRU price
outlook held constant after 2046, prices adjusted for inflation based on variation of American PPI between July 2021 & July 2022 which was 5.8% (3) Upside Case based on recent market prices of US$800/t CFR
Brazil KCI prices at full run-rate production (4) Downside Case based on using 10-year low CFR Brazil KCI price at full run-rate production
BRAZIL
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POTASH
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