Solar Market and Cost Analysis
Annual Electric Generation (TWh)
U.S. Solar Projections
Increase After IRA Passage
8,000
7,000
Other
Nuclear
Solar (all)
Coal
Other RE
Utility-Scale PV
Natural Gas
Wind
Distributed PV
•
BloombergNEF and NREL U.S. solar generation
projections after IRA passage increased by 90%-
93% for 2035 and 9%-35% for 2050.
Solar generation in these newer projections comes
closer to DOE decarbonization projections, but
solar generation would still need to increase 40%-
100% to reach those decarbonization projections.
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
CSP
Solar
increase
post IRA
Solar
increase
post IRA
Decarbonization studies
Solar
increase
post IRA
Solar
increase
post IRA
0
EIA 2022
(Mar)
BNEF
2020/2021
Mid
BNEF 2022 NREL SS 2021 NREL SS 2022
Mid
SETO SFS
Decarb+E
NREL 100%
2035 (all
options)
EIA 2022
(Mar)
BNEF
2020/2021
BNEF 2022 NREL SS 2021 NREL SS 2022
Mid
Mid
Decarbonization study
SETO SFS
Decarb+E
2021
2035
2050
Sources: BloombergNEF, New Energy Outlook 2020, 2021, 2022; EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2022; NREL, 2021 Standard Scenarios; NREL, 2022 Standard Scenarios; NREL, Examining NREL | 15
Supply-Side Options to Achieve 100% Clean Electricity by 2035; DOE SETO, Solar Futures Study.View entire presentation