Scotiabank Canadian Legislative Covered Bonds Presentation
•
Canadian Housing Fundamentals Remain Sound
Steady population and household income gains, low interest rates, and
increased immigration are underpinning demand
Unemployment rate remains low and stable
Strong underwriting discipline and conservative lending policies are
reflected in low delinquency rates
320
International Immigration
number of immigrants
2017
Target = 300K
чий
300
to Canada, 000s
High household debt supported by stable debt-service costs, low
unemployment, and significant home equity
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
90
95
00
05
10
15
•
Mortgage rules progressively tightened since 2008
Affordability strains observed in select markets, primarily in BC's Lower
Mainland and Southern Ontario
Residential Unit Sales to New Listings Ratio
1.0
ratio
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
Balanced
Market
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Mortgage Debt Service Ratio
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada.
Residential Mortgages Arrears
8
% of disposable income
6
% of mortgages in arrears
Sellers' Market
Interest + Required
3 months or more
7
5
Principal Payments
CO
1990-2015
average
4
5
3
4
Buyers' Market
3
2
Interest Only
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA MLS. Data through April 2017.
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada.
Data through 2016Q4.
34
2
0
US
Canada
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CBA, MBA. Data through Q1 and
February 2017.View entire presentation