Currency and Interest Rate Outlook

K KASIKORNTHAI Public Debt to GDP and Fiscal Budget Public Debt Billion Baht 9,000 60 Public Debt -% to GDP 58 8,500 55.42 56 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 44 42 40 % to GDP % Cumulative Budget Disbursement Rate (%) ธนาคารกสิกรไทย 开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK Budget Disbursement Rate 100 80 FY 2021 FY 2020 59.71 60 --FY 2019 47.21 67.82 39.35 34.32 54.00 40 28.56 21.04 20 10.81. 0 ■Public debt to GDP ratio rose significantly to 55.42%, as of May 2021. However, it is still under the 60% limit set under the fiscal sustainability framework ■Thai government committed to keep the ratio of public debt to GDP not exceed 60%. The public debt to GDP is expected to rise to 57.9% in FY2021 Total Budget Bt3.29trn FY21 Budget FY21 target 9M FY2021 actual Unused FY21 Budget Bt3.29trn (100%) Bt2.64trn (100%) Bt0.65trn (100%) Bt2.23trn (68%) Bt1.95trn (74%) Bt0.29trn (44%) Bt1.06trn (32%) Bt0.69n (26%) Bt0.36trn (56%) - General Budget Bt2.64trn - Investment Budget Bt0.65trn ■Government budget disbursement rate for 9MFY2021 is 68%, decreased by 3% from the 70% in 9MFY2020. The disbursement started to catch up after the budget enactment Source: Ministry of Finance (MOF), Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), and Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ K KASIKORNTHAI Relief Measures for COVID-19 Impacts Phase 1 Measures - Soft loans worth Bt150 billion ธนาคารกสิกรไทย 开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK MOF Package Size Measures BOT Package Size Bt400 billion Provide liquidity for bond mutual funds Bt1.0 triillion - Interest cuts and delayed debt payments (SFIs) - Reducing electricity and water bills Phase 2 - Cash handouts - Emergency loans - Tax benefits Phase 3 - Implementing health-related plans and giving financial aid to affected people - Economic and social rehabilitation Bt 120 billion Bt1.0 trillion Bt1.5 trillion or 9.8% of 2020 GDP Note: SFIs Specialized Financial Institutions Source: MOF, BOT and KResearch, as of July 2021 Soft loans and asset warehousing programme Bt500 billion Corporate Bond Liquidity Stabilization Fund (BSF) Bt400 billion Bt1.9 trillion or 12.2% of 2020 GDP บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ 128 127

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