4Q 2021 Investor Presentation
Economic Outlook
Improving economic outlook supportive for the banking sector, though Covid risks remain
Real GDP Growth (%)
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-4.1%
-5.0%
2020
Composite* Oil Price Avg / Barrel (USD)
100.0
50.0
41.3
Inflation (%)
65.7
2.8%
2021
3M Average SAIBOR (%)
2.0%
64.5
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
0.0%
2020
2021
2022E
2020
2021
4.8%
2022E
Government Expenditures % of GDP (%)
6.0%
60.0%
3.2%
41.0%
3.4%
2.2%
3.0%
30.0%
32.1%
مصرف الإنماء
alinma bank
1.5%
2022E
30.8%
Further rebound in real GDP growth
The KSA economy is expected to see a solid rebound of
4.8% in 2022 following the 2020 contraction as a result of
COVID-19; this projection is however heavily reliant on the
ability of the country to contain further outbreaks caused
by variants in 2022.
Vision 2030 expansion plans back on track
Alongside an economic recovery, Vision 2030 plans are
expected to accelerate.
Stabilization of oil prices
Following a year of strong recovery of oil prices, the
average price for the composite index is expected to
stabilize at ~$65/ barrel in 2022 that will serve to
support economic growth.
Rise in SAIBOR rates
3M average SAIBOR rates are expected to see a rise to
1.5% in 2022 from 0.8% average in 2021.
Declining inflation and government expenditures
Inflation is expected to decline to 2.2% in 2022 from the
3.2% level in 2021; government expenditures are
expected to remain above 30% of GDP in 2022.
0.0%
0.0%
2020
2021
2022E
2020
2021
2022E
4Q 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
SOURCE: IMF October 2021 | *Simple average of three spot prices: Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and
the Dubai Fateh
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