Investor Presentaiton
1 Wage Increases Likely to Slow Over Time
A recent survey of CFOs conducted by Evercore ISI, and corroborated by other
broad surveys (regional Federal Reserve, S&P & ISM PMIs), suggests wage growth
is likely to decelerate meaningfully over the next few months
Corporate Expectations of Wage Growth:
Evercore ISI Company Surveys
CFO Next 12 Mos. Expectation of the
Growth Rate on Wages Paid to Employees
% Increase minus % Decrease Oct 13 -6%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
+
+
+
+
+
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
"Many contacts suggested "the second half of the year will be different" when describing wage growth. Growth in labor cost
pressures was elevated in most Districts, often exceeding expectations during the first half of the year. But nearly all Districts
indicated businesses renewed their previously unfulfilled expectations that wage growth will slow broadly in the near term."
- Federal Reserve Beige Book, September 6, 2023
Source: Evercore ISI, Company Survey Report (October 13, 2023); Federal Reserve
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