Westpac New Zealand Economic and Sustainability Strategy Update
Economic forecasts
GDP components
Quarterly % change
Annual average % change
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
2019
2020
2021F
2022F
GDP (production)
-1.0
0.0
1.2
0.5
2.4
-2.9
4.2
4.4
Private consumption
1.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
3.6
-1.7
7.8
2.8
Government consumption
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.1
5.4
5.8
4.8
3.4
Residential investment
1.9
2.0
1.3
0.8
4.9
-4.3
16.2
1.4
Business Investment
-3.1
4.4
-0.3
1.1
2.4
-8.9
7.3
6.8
Exports
-1.1
-6.6
8.4
4.0
2.4
-12.0
-1.2
11.9
Imports
9.1
9.4
3.5
5.2
2.2
-16.5
21.0
5.4
Economic indicators
Quarterly % change
Annual % change
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
2019
2020
2021F
2022F
Consumer price index
0.5
0.8
0.5
0.8
1.9
1.4
2.4
1.4
Employment change
0.6
0.5
0.1
0.4
1.2
0.8
1.4
2.1
Unemployment rate
4.9
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.1
4.9
4.5
4.1
Labour cost index (all sectors)
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.5
2.6
1.6
1.9
2.1
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-0.8
-1.9
-2.9
-3.6
-3.3
-0.8
-3.7
-2.7
Terms of trade
1.3
1.5
6.2
2.0
7.1
-1.7
9.0
-3.0
House price index
9.0
7.4
1.0
0.0
4.6
17.5
8.1
-3.0
Financial forecasts
End of quarter
End of year
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
2019
2020
2021F
2022F
90 day bank bill
5 year swap
TWI
NZD/USD
0.27
0.26
0.35
0.35
1.17
0.27
0.35
0.35
0.31
0.88
1.10
1.15
1.18
0.31
1.20
1.40
72.9
74.9
75.6
74.9
71.4
72.9
75.0
75.2
0.69
0.72
0.73
0.73
0.64
0.69
0.74
0.76
35
35View entire presentation