RBC Financial Strategy and Performance
-1
-2
5
4
3
2
1
Growth in economy to slow with economy hitting capacity
Headline inflation eased to 2.0% on average in Q4 but has slipped below that in early 2019 due to lower
energy prices than the previous year. Underlying inflation trends continue to be around the Bank of
Canada's 2% midpoint target with limited slack in the economy keeping a floor under prices.
■ Labour markets have continued to improve. The unemployment rate fell to a new cycle-low 5.6% on
average in calendar Q4 - the lowest in more than 4 decades.
The unemployment rate in Alberta dipped to 6.6% on average in Q4. That is still above the national
average but is down more than two percentage points from a recent peak of 9.0% in late 2016.
RBC
■ GDP growth appears to have slowed to 2.0% from the unsustainable 3.0% increase in 2017. We expect
trend-like growth of 1.7% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020.
2000
2001
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Canadian Inflation (YoY)(¹)
سکتا
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2016
2017
2018
Headline
-BOC Target
6
5
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
Canadian Labour Markets (YoY)(2)
1991-
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Employment growth (YOY% - RHS)
Economic Backdrop
(1) Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research. (2) Statistics Canada, Bureau of Labor Statistics, RBC Economics Research.
Unemployment rate (% - LHS)
25
25
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3View entire presentation