Investor Presentaiton
Overview of Kuwait (Continued)
Investment
Investments (KD Bn, Ihs)
Investments (% Non-oil GDP, rhs)
50%
33.3%
45%
8
31.6%
30.9%
32.3%
29.5%
29.3%
40%
6
25.8%
35%
4
30%
2
25%
4.6
5.8
5.8
6.3
7.1
7.4
8.5
0
20%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
GDP
Growth
Public
Finance
Household
Debt
Recent Developments
Economic growth seen improving despite drop in oil prices, as
project awards pick up. Fiscal and external buffers give Kuwait
ample capacity to sustain spending plans.
Non-oil growth is expected to accelerate slightly as capital
spending on projects improves. Non-oil growth is expected around
4-5% in 2016 and 2017.
Fiscal deficits are likely in the near term with oil prices at current
levels, on the back of rapid growth in government spending and
lower oil revenues.
Inflation expected to remain under control, supported by a stronger
dinar and limited global inflation. Domestic pressures have risen,
but remain contained.
Household debt growth has moderated but remains healthy.
Kuwaiti employment remained healthy in 2015, though Kuwaiti
household income growth moderated. Growth in government
spending on wages and salaries is expected to moderate, but
remain positive.
10
8
6
4
10
Credit
Growth
Credit growth picked up in 2015, as government project
implementation boosted borrowing. Growth rose to 8% y/y in
December 2015. We expect it in the 7-8% range in 2016 and 2017.
Government project awards accelerated in 2015. With the recent
announcement of mega project awards and a strong pipeline of
tenders building up, FY15/16 has seen a pick up in execution.
2
0
Dec-11
Private credit (Change, %y/y)
Dec-12
Month end
Dec-13
10
12 month average
8
6
Dec-14
Real Estate sales 12m average (KD mn)
200
Commercial
150
Residential
4
2
Dec-15
95
0
200
Investment
150
100
100
50
Real Estate
Activity
Real estate activity cooled in 2015 following a strong 2014; sales
were off by 30% to KD 3 billion in 2015. Real estate prices have
also come off, though outright declines have been limited.
50
0
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
06
الوطني
NBK
Sources: Central Bank of Kuwait, Central Statistical Bureau, Ministry of Finance, IIF and NBK estimates
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