Hawaii State Treasury and Economic Update
STATE
OF A
1959
Council on Revenues Update
The independent Council on Revenues provides quarterly revenue forecasts that are used by the State to
formulate its 6-year general fund financial plan
■The Council held a virtual meeting on May 28th, 2020, to forecast revenue growth for State General Fund revenues and lowered its
forecast to -7.0% for FY2020 and -12.0% for FY2021 (actual tax collections for FY2020 were -6.2%)
■The Council expects a rebound in revenues of 12.0% in FY2022 and a growth rate of 3.0% for each of FY2023-2026
■The Council acknowledged uncertainty surrounding the forecast figures for FY2021 and FY2022 due to the nature of the disease and
the government's response to stop the virus in Hawaii
For the FY2021 estimate, the Council made the assumption that the 14-day self-quarantine period imposed on transpacific
passengers would be lifted by late July 2020
■The Council also discussed the infectiousness, modes of transmission, and possible vaccines and treatments for the COVID-19 virus,
and assumed in its analysis that a vaccine or effective treatment against the disease would be made available during FY2022
■ At its meeting on July 30th, the Council on Revenues forecasted that total personal income in Hawaii would decline by 7% in the
2020 calendar and there would be no growth in the 2021 calendar year
General Fund Tax Revenue Collections & Projections ($mm)
Actual
Projected
$10,000
$9,227
$9,000
$8,000
$7,142
$6,796
$7,435
$7,732 $7,964 $8,203
$8,531
$8,872
$9,106
$8,756
$7,000
$6,194 $6,315
$8,419
$6,000
$5,468 $5,371
$5,735
$7,413
$8,095
$7,784
$5,000
$4,426 $4,590 $4,590
$4,973
$6,642
$4,202 $4,364 $4,324
$7,413
$5,845
$6,546 $6,743 $6,945 $7,153 $7,368
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
COR Forecast from January 10, 2020
COR Forecast from March 11, 2020
COR Forecast from May 28, 2020
4.1% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
3.8% 0.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
-7.0% -12.0% 12.0%
3.0%
3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
$0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014
2015 2016 2017 2018
Fiscal Year
2019
2020 2021 2022
2023 2024 2025 2026
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