Investor Presentation Q3 2020
Macroeconomic Scenarios
Select Macroeconomic Variables that Impact Expected Credit Loss Calculations
Base Case Scenario
Alternative Scenario - Optimistic Alternative Scenario - Pessimistic
Alternative Scenario - Severe
Pessimistic
Next 12 months
As at
July 31,
2020
As at
April 30,
As at
October 31,
As at
July 31,
2020
2019
2020
As at
April 30,
2020
As at
October 31,
2019
As at
July 31,
2020
As at
April 30,
2020
As at
October 31,
2019
As at
July 31,
As at
April 30,
As at
October 31,
2020
2020
2019
Canada
Real GDP growth, y/y % change
-0.1
-9.5
1.9
3.6
-7.9
2.4
-5.8
-14.1
1.3
-13.5
-19.1
n/a
Unemployment rate, average %
9.1
11.7
5.8
7.8
11.2
5.6
12.1
14.3
6.1
15.9
16.6
n/a
US
Real GDP growth, y/y % change
1.8
-6.3
1.8
5.0
-4.6
2.3
-2.0
-9.9
1.4
-8.9
-14.9
n/a
Unemployment rate, average %
9.6
11.1
3.9
8.9
10.7
3.7
11.0
13.1
4.0
13.5
15.1
n/a
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
41
27
54
46
28
56
56
35
23
53
31
20
n/a
Next 12 months
Canada
Quarterly breakdown of the projections for the above macroeconomic variables, under the base case scenario:
Base Case Scenario
Calendar Quarters
Average
Calendar Quarters
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
July 31
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2020
2020
2021
2021
2020
2020
2020
2020
2021
Average
April 30
2020
Real GDP growth, y/y % change
-9.0
-5.1
-1.2
14.7
-0.1
-15.4
-11.5
-7.9
-3.3
-9.5
Unemployment rate, average %
12.3
9.6
7.7
6.8
9.1
13.3
13.2
11.0
9.2
11.7
US
Real GDP growth, y/y % change
Unemployment rate, average %
-5.2
-2.5
1.0
13.8
1.8
-12.4
-7.7
-4.7
-0.4
-6.3
11.7
10.2
8.8
7.5
9.6
10.3
11.5
11.6
10.8
11.1
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
38
39
42
44
41
22
24
29
34
27
27
Source: Scotiabank Economics, as at July 31, 2020.
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