Outlook Projection FY 2023-24

The Bottom Line... OUTLOOK PROJECTION (in millions) 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 AVAILABLE GENERAL REVENUE 56,336.4 59,177.0 61,157.7 Recurring Base Budget 39,022.1 40,002.5 41,074.4 Transfer to Budget Stabilization Fund 0.0 Critical Needs 412.0 Other High Priority Needs 1,535.7 TOTAL EXPENDITURES 40,969.8 0.0 0.0 800.9 767.5 1,846.7 1,848.7 42,650.1 43,690.6 ENDING BALANCE AFTER EXPENDITURES 15,366.6 16,526.9 17,467.1 Overall, the forecasted General Revenue growth (recurring and nonrecurring) is sufficient to support anticipated spending and a minimum reserve for each year of the Outlook-the projected budget is in balance as constitutionally Revenue Adjustments Reserve (168.9) (192.9) (216.9) 1,663.3 1,715.2 1,748.1 required and is growing more slowly than available revenues. PROJECTED ENDING BALANCE 13,534.4 14,618.9 15,502.1 Within the Outlook, the projected ending balance for Fiscal Year 2023-24 is just over $13.5 billion. These funds would be available to carry forward into the next fiscal year. In the alternative, the Legislature could choose to use some or all of the balance to bolster the state's reserves; increase discretionary spending; or provide additional tax reductions. However, the increasingly positive budget outlook each year is reliant on the projected balance forward levels being available and the minimum reserve not being used. This creates a natural limit to how much spending could occur while still remaining positive in the two subsequent years. 18

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