Investor Presentaiton
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222
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
2019-12
Inflation is on a downward trend
Annual inflation is estimated to be lower than forecasted for 2023-20241
Baltics harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP in %)
• Inflation in Estonia slowed down to 4% year-on-year in November
2023, which represents the lowest level in the past 2.5 years. The
price level has remained unchanged since spring
25
Estonia
Latvia
-Lithuania
• Since mid-2023, energy has negatively contributed to HICP inflation
in Estonia after energy prices peaked a year ago
20
15
• ECB policy normalization and weak consumer sentiment are helping
to contain inflation
10
Annualized
monthly HICP
• The Ministry of Finance of Estonia projects that HICP inflation will
slow from 9.6% in 2023 to 4.8% in 2024 and to 2.6% in 2025 as the
drivers fuelling inflation, mainly imported, subside. 1 Without
accounting for tax measures (incl. VAT hike), inflation is forecast to
be around 3% next year. However, the latest data points to a steeper
slowdown, as HICP is estimated to be 9.2% in 2023 and lower than
forecasted in 2024 as well
HICP breakdown in Estonia (%)
28
5
0
-5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: Statistics Estonia, Eurostat
לאלו
2021
2022
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Baltics HICP components as of November 2023 (%)
2020-02
2020-04
2020-06
2020-08
2020-10
2020-12
2021-02
2021-04
2021-06
2021-08
2021-10
2021-12
2022-02
2022-04
2022-06
2022-0
2022-10
2022-1
2023-02
2023-04
2023-06
2023-08
16
■Energy
Services (overall index excluding goods)
Source: Eurostat
Food including alcohol and tobacco
Non-energy industrial goods
Note: (1) Ministry of Finance of Estonia, Summer 2023 forecast
2023-10
-2
-3
3
1.9
1.7
1.7
2
1.5
1.6
1.4 1.4
1.2
0.9
1
0
-0.2
-1
Estonia
Food including alcohol and tobacco
Services (overall index excluding goods)
Source: Eurostat
-2.7
Latvia
Energy
-2.3
Lithuania
Non-energy industrial goods
REPUBLIC OF ESTONIA
MINISTRY OF FINANCE
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23View entire presentation