Solar Market and Cost Analysis

California Adopts Net Metering 3.0 Policy Many groups have been critical of the various versions of California NEM 3.0. - In September, a group of 129 California and national organizations wrote a letter to Governor Newsom that accused the CPUC of having "weaponized equity" in the initial California NEM 3.0 proposal. Roth capital estimated California's residential solar segment could be down 30% y/y in the 12 months after NEM 3.0 goes into effect. They also contended the changes could push California to a 100% solar+storage market, ultimately decreasing both accessibility and affordability. The California Solar & Storage Association observed that given that the state is currently installing roughly 30,000 batteries and 200,000 solar systems, it could take years for storage installation rates to catch up. Centrica Business Solutions estimated the plan will increase simple payback time by 2-10 years for most commercial solar customers. Wood Mackenzie estimates a 4-year increase in payback times for residential solar. • In January, the Center for Biological Diversity, Protect Our Communities Foundation, and the Environmental Working Group together appealed CPUC's decision on the grounds that the decision will harm the ability of environmental justice and low-income communities to benefit from solar energy. - The appeal states that the regulators devalued rooftop solar based on flawed modeling that ignored net metering's benefits, including decreasing fossil fuel dependence and providing new jobs, ignored harms from fossil fuel energy particularly to low- income communities and communities of color), and failed to analyze non-solar customer bills. Sources: Letter from 125+ organizations to Gov Newsom re: NEM, Solar Power World, Solar.com, Solar Builder Mag, pv-mag (12/15/22, 1/19/2023), Centrica Business Solutions, Wood Mackenzie/SEIA: U.S. Solar Market Insight: Q4 2022. NREL 10

View entire presentation