Investor Presentaiton
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Growth expectations revised upwards despite the uncertainty related to
<<Delta» variant
Real GDP is expected to return to positive growth rates
from Q2 onwards, following a weaker than expected
recession in Q1 2021...
10%
...supported by the strong fiscal impetus engineered by
the Greek government...
4%
120
2%
5.0% 5.3%
0%
-2%
-0.3%
▪ 100
-4%
-6.70%
-7.20%
-6%
80
-8%
2020
2021f
220%
2.0%
2.9%
200%
180%
160%
140%
2022f
Primary Balance (% GDP)
2023f
2024f
Interest Expenditure (% GDP)
Gross Public Debt (% GDP), rhs
2017
-
IV I
2018
|| III IV
2019
Real GDP Greece (q-o-q)
Alpha Bank ERD forecasts
I
||
2021
-
2020
2021f 2022
Real GDP Greece (y-o-y)
ESI Greece (3m average, rhs)
....and the observed weaker effect of lockdowns on
mobility.
18954
100
85
70
55
40
25
10
-5
-20
-35
-50
(*) Immobility Index: 7-day moving average of
-65
Feb-20
Mar-20
Google's inverted community mobility index.
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
mFeb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Retail and Recreation*
Workplaces*
Grocery and Pharmacy
Residential
Transit Stations*
Stringency Index
Sources: ELSTAT, Eurostat, Google Community Mobility Reports, Ministry of Finance, Stability Programme 2021
■ Domestic economic activity is expected to bounce back from the second
quarter of the year, re-entering a strong recovery phase marked by the
attraction of fresh investment and closing of the investment gap accumulated
during the previous decade.
■ The stringency index and community immobility moved in parallel since the
pandemic outbreak. However, from November 2020 onwards, the effect of
lockdown measures on community mobility is weakening.
■ The strong fiscal impulse is expected to remain in place in 2021,
underpinning households' disposable income.
21
ALPHA
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