Investor Presentaiton

ECL ASSESSMENT EXPECTED CREDIT LOSS (ECL) SCENARIOS Total Provisions for Expected Credit Losses KEY CONSIDERATIONS • • Modest underlying CP uplift reflecting material levels of support (e.g. deferrals, JobKeeper etc) and liquidity Modest deterioration in economic assumptions – deeper trough in economic activity and slower recovery Introduced upside weighting to reflect material uncertainty over economic outlook including impact of stimulus Detailed analysis of exposures most at risk driving higher target sector FLAS Limited change in exposures (total and mix) (ECL)1 $m 2H20 (probability 100% Base case 100% Downside ● weighted) Housing 1,245 1,188 1,672 Business 4,252 3,925 5,501 Total Group 6,011 5,611 7,774 Change vs March 20 1,176 1,220 (81) ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS Economic assumptions considered in deriving ECL scenarios as at Sep 20 Scenario weightings applied in probability weighted ECL for the Australian portfolio Base case Downside % CY20 20 C) CY21 CY22 CY20 CY21 CY22 Upside Base Case Downside GDP change (Year ended (5.7) 3.1 2.8 (8.0) 1.5 2.5 % 2H20 2H20 2H20 December) Unemployment Housing 15 60 25 9.2 7.6 6.6 12.0 12.8 9.9 (end of year) Business 15 60 House price change (11.6) (20.7) Total Group 15 60 60 60 25 25 25 (Peak-to-trough) (1) Expected credit losses (ECL) excludes collective provisions on fair value loans and derivatives. Scenarios, prepared for purposes of informing forward looking provisions, rely on NAB Economics modelling and management judgement 25 25 National Australia Bank

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