Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck
Intro
Net Asset Value
at a significantly higher rate fuelled by its geographical expansion. The
valuation also reflects the exceptional operational efficiency of the com-
pany's proprietary fulfilment solution.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 11 percent shareholding in Vivino amounts
to SEK 577m, effectively flat in the quarter save for currency tailwinds. The
valuation is mainly based on forward-looking GMV multiples of a peer
group of global online marketplaces with high user engagement such
as Etsy (ETSY). Our assessed value of the company as a whole is written
down in line with the trading of the peer group in the quarter, which has
seen its average forward-looking GMV multiple contract by around 35
percent. The valuation remains at an unchanged and relatively material
discount to the peer group's average multiple. As our holding benefits
from downside protection from the preferential terms of our investment
in the company's latest equity fundraise, the fair value of our investment
remains largely unchanged.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 5 percent shareholding in Jobandtalent
amounts to SEK 1,082m, effectively flat in the quarter. The valuation is
based on near-term forward-looking revenue multiples of a peer group
consisting of human capital-focused businesses such as Fiverr (FVRR)
and Upwork (UPWK), with reference also drawn to B2B marketplaces.
The peer group's average NTM revenue multiple contracted by around
40 percent in the second quarter, with the company's revenue growth
muting the impact of a contracting multiple somewhat. The company
remains valued at an unchanged premium to the peer group consider-
ing its significantly stronger revenue growth relative to the peer group
constituents while maintaining comparable margins. Our holding benefits
from downside protection from the preferential terms of our investment
in the company's fundraise in the fourth quarter of 2021, supporting an
effectively unchanged fair value.
SOFTWARE
Our Software businesses are typically benchmarked against a peer set of
SaaS businesses such as Atlassian (TEAM) and Salesforce (CRM), and of
more transactional software businesses like Twilio (TWLO) and Shopify
(SHOP). The companies in the peer set typically grew revenue at around
35 percent in 2021 and have gross margins of 80 percent, compared to
KINNEVIK
Interim Report Q2 2022
Portfolio Overview
Sustainability
our businesses which typically are growing more than four times faster
with almost comparable gross margins.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 8 percent shareholding in Cedar amounts
to SEK 2,061m, down around 10 percent in the quarter. The valuation
reflects an unchanged premium to the peer group's average NTM revenue
multiple, which has contracted by around 30 percent in the quarter. Our
fair value is supported upwards by continued strong revenue growth
and the Swedish krona's depreciation against the dollar. The company
is valued in line with the richest valued companies in its peer group, cor-
responding to a material premium to the peer group average to reflect
Cedar's considerably stronger growth rate. In relation to this average,
the valuation normalizes materially twelve months out, courtesy of the
company's strong outlook.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 14 percent shareholding in Pleo amounts to
SEK 4,502m, down around 16 percent from last quarter's valuation, which
in turn was 10 percent below where the company raised new financing at
in the fourth quarter of 2021. The write-down reflects a largely unchanged
premium to the peer group's more resilient quartile on an NTM revenue
basis, which has contracted by around 40 percent in the quarter. Due
to Pleo's significantly higher pace of growth than the peer group aver-
age, the write-down becomes more muted. The valuation still implies a
significant premium to the peer group on an NTM basis, but normalizes
over the coming 12 months in relation to the best-in-class companies in
the peer group as Pleo is expected to grow at a significantly faster pace.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 15 percent shareholding in TravelPerk
amounts to SEK 1,923m, effectively flat in dollar terms in the quarter
but gaining 10 percent from a weakening Swedish krona. The assessed
valuation is fairly in line with where the company raised new financing
in late December 2021, and where smaller secondary transactions took
place during the quarter, in which Kinnevik participated. The resilience
of the carrying value of our TravelPerk investment reflects the company's
superior performance benefiting from a sharp rebound in travel as well
as continued strong acquisition of new clients more than offsetting an
approximate 30 percent decline in the NTM revenue multiple during
the first half of 2022.
Financial Statements
Other
CONSUMER FINANCE
Our Consumer Finance businesses are typically benchmarked against a
peer set of digital wealth managers such as Avanza (AZA.ST) and Nordnet
(SAVE.ST), and consumer-facing subscription businesses such as Match
Group (MTCH) and Netflix (NFLX). On average, the companies in the
broader composite peer set grew revenue by 40 percent in 2021 with
gross margins above 50 percent, largely in line with our investments in
the sector.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 13 percent shareholding in Betterment
amounts to SEK 1,415m, effectively flat in the quarter in SEK terms. The
peer group's average NTM revenue multiple contracted by nearly 30
percent in the second quarter and we continue to value Betterment at
an unchanged approximate 10 percent premium to the peer group av-
erage in consideration of the company's stronger growth trajectory. Per
the end of May, the company's assets under management amounted to
around USD 32bn. While the revenue mix is becoming more diversified,
Betterment's revenues are still primarily derived from fees on these assets
under management and therefore remain in part correlated with the
development of the US and global stock market. To reflect the drawdown
in equity markets, our revenue outlook has been adjusted downwards by
double-digit percentages relative to last quarter's forecast. At the current
valuation level, the carrying value of our investment is positively affected
by liquidation preferences, causing a more muted change in fair value
relative to our underlying valuation of the business.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 6 percent shareholding in Lunar amounts to
SEK 522m, down 35 percent in the quarter and from the valuation applied
in a secondary transaction in the company during the first quarter. The
peer group's average NTM revenue multiple contracted by around 25
percent in the quarter, and this contraction is reflected in our valuation.
The valuation remains at a premium to peers on an NTM revenue multiple
basis, but is within the peer group spread on a 2023 revenue basis due to
the company's continued stronger growth rate relative to the peer group.
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