Financial Markets Summary Q4 2022
st
4
50
00
6
7
2.00
2.10
Q4 21
2.20
Canada Real GDP
($ Trillions)
2.30
Q1 22
Q2 22
APPENDIX 19 | RANGE OF MACROECONOMIC SCENARIOS - IFRS 9
Q3 22
Q4 22
Q1 23
Q2 23
Canada Unemployment Rate
(%)
9
8
Q3 23
Q4 23
23
Q4 23
Q1 24
Q1 24
Q2 24
Q2 24
Q3 24
Q3 24
Q4 24
NBC Macroeconomic Forecast: Q4/22 vs. Q3/22
(Full Calendar Years)
Base Scenario
C2023
C2024
Real GDP (Annual Average % Change)
As at Jul. 31, 2022
1.5 %
1.3 %
As at Oct. 31, 2022
0.7 %
1.6 %
Unemployment Rate (Average %)
As at Jul. 31, 2022
5.5 %
5.7 %
As at Oct. 31, 2022
6.1 %
6.2 %
Housing Price Index (Q4/Q4 % Change)
As at Jul. 31, 2022
(7.0) %
0.2 %
As at Oct. 31, 2022
(9.6)%
0.2 %
WTI (Average US$ per Barrel)
As at Jul. 31, 2022
94
As at Oct. 31, 2022
200
89
85
78
80
S&P/TSX (Q4/Q4 % Change)
As at Jul. 31, 2022
2.7 %
2.0 %
As at Oct. 31, 2022
3.0 %
2.0 %
Q4 21
Q1 22
Q2 22
Q3 22
Q4 22
22
Q1 23
Q2 23
Q3 23
Baseline (Oct. 22)
83
Baseline (Jul. '22)
Range of Alternative Scenarios (Oct. '22)
Q4 24
Source: NBF Economics and Strategy. Macroeconomic assumptions are for calendar years. See pages 181 and 182 of the Bank's 2022 Annual Report for additional information. 38 |
BBB Spread (Average Spread %)
As at Jul. 31, 2022
2.1 %
2.2 %
As at Oct. 31, 2022
2.3 %
2.2 %View entire presentation