Investor Presentaiton
HARD COKING COAL MARKET
Demand for premium HCC (a) will continue
to increase until the commercial adoption
of a viable steelmaking substitute
Seaborne HCC production capacity versus demand
(HCC, Mt)
250
200
150
CAGR (b) 2006-2022:
2.4%
100
50
2006
2011
2016
Permitting challenges are
constraining new mine supply
Shortage of premium HCC expected
to provide further price support for
high grade product
Premium HCC as % of Global Seaborne HCC supply is decreasing
(%)
100%
80%
CAGR 2023-2026e:
0.5%
CAGR 2027-2040e:
(1.5%)
60%
2021
2026e
Operating Mine Production
Greenfield Expansion
Source: CRU 2022 Q3, South32 analysis
Notes:
a.
b.
2031e
Brownfield Expansion
Primary demand
2036e
Premium hard coking coal (HCC) is classified as CSR (coke strength after reaction) greater than 65.
CAGR for production/estimated production from operating mines.
40%
20%
2022
2030e
2040e
Premium HCC
HCC
SLIDE 37
III
SOUTH32View entire presentation