Investor Presentation
Inventory Levels Drive Near-Term Price Fluctuations
Inventory-to-Demand Ratio vs. Export Log Price
Inventory-to-Demand Ratio (Avg. Monthly Demand)
(2)
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
FOB A-Grade Export Log Price (US$/ m3 JAS)
(1)
$200
$175
$150
$125
$100
$75
Supply demand range considered in balance
$50
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
$25
Export supply/demand is generally considered in balance when the ratio of port inventory to average
monthly demand is between 1.4 and 1.9 times. Inventory typically spikes around the Chinese New Year.
(1)
(2)
Rayonier
Source:
FOB log price calculated based on CFR delivered price less ocean freight costs.
Demand calculated based on 3-month moving average.
Forest Economic Advisors and Rayonier estimates.
Investor Presentation
August 2023
China FOB US$ / m3 JAS
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