Investor Presentaiton
5
6
7
8
Canada Real GDP
($ Trillions)
2.50
2.40
2.30
2.20
2.10
APPENDIX 13 | RANGE OF MACROECONOMIC SCENARIOS - IFRS 9
Q3 24
Canada Unemployment Rate
(%)
9
4
23 23
24 24
24
24
Q1 25
Q2 25
Q4 25
Q1 26
Q2 26
Q3 26
Q4 26
NBC Macroeconomic Forecast: Q1/24 vs. Q4/23
(Full Calendar Years)
Base Scenario
C2024
C2025
Real GDP (Annual Average % Change)
As at October 31, 2023
(0.0) %
1.7 %
As at January 31, 2024
(0.2) %
1.4 %
Unemployment Rate (Average %)
As at October 31, 2023
6.4 %
6.5 %
As at January 31, 2024
6.7 %
6.9 %
Housing Price Index (Q4/Q4 % Change)
As at October 31, 2023
(0.9) %
1.0 %
As at January 31, 2024
0.8 %
3.2 %
WTI (Average US$ per Barrel)
As at October 31, 2023
As at January 31, 2024
7R
75
80
70
78
S&P/TSX (Q4/Q4 % Change)
As at October 31, 2023
(3.6) %
5.7 %
As at January 31, 2024
(7.0) %
5.7 %
BBB Spread (Average Spread %)
As at October 31, 2023
As at January 31, 2024
2.4 %
2.1 %
2.4 %
2.2 %
Baseline (Jan. '24)
Range of Alternative Scenarios (Jan. '24)
Source: NBF Economics and Strategy. Macroeconomic assumptions are for calendar years. See pages 70 and 71 of the Bank's Report to Shareholders for the First Quarter of
2024 for additional information
31 ☑View entire presentation