Insurgency Success Factors and Rebel Legitimacy
conflict and the state capital. Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler, and Mans Soderbom (2001) argue that
economic inequality, moderate ethnic division, and low per capita income produce longer
conflicts, and support positive rebel outcomes. They also argue that conflict environments that
heavily influence conflict outcomes are largely molded before conflict onset. Halvard Buhaug,
Scott Gates, and Paivi Lujala (2009) build on earlier arguments to answer why some civil wars
are more protracted and how rebels achieve successful outcomes. They list key geographic
factors (distance from government administration centers, availability of safe havens, and rebels
based on periphery) and civil capacity as the leading determinants of conflict duration and
outcomes. Finally, Jacob Aronson, Paul Huth, Mark Lichbach, and Kiyoung Chang (2015)
provide a detailed argument of how and why rebels win. Material capabilities and rebel access to
resources is the strongest determinant of rebel success. Rebel success can also be influenced by
state economic and military capacity, civilian information to support rebel military objectives,
availability of shelter and safe havens, and access to external support. The study also found that
highly favorable rebel outcomes are extremely rare and often occur without state concession.
While conflict literature has contributed to understanding how geographic, resource, and
external actor presence influences rebel outcomes, legitimacy arguments have not yet been
incorporated into outcome considerations. This analysis fills this gap by addressing how rebel
legitimacy can produce avenues that can lead to these factors, thereby influencing rebel success.
Methodology and Analysis: Developing a Framework for Assessing the Effects of
Legitimacy on Success
The variety of sources, concepts, and methodologies in contemporary literature provide
insight into the challenge of defining and tracking the presence and effects of rebel legitimacy.
This analysis provides a qualitative framework that guides legitimacy analysis in rebellion
contexts. The framework addresses gaps in existing literature that fail to provide a
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