Investor Presentaiton
Raising the Stakes in Jammu and Kashmir
Crisis Group Asia Report N°310, 5 August 2020
Page 32
VIII. Conclusion
Jammu and Kashmir is less stable today than it was before the Modi government
revoked the region's semi-autonomous status, and drastically changed its constitu-
tional, political, territorial and economic status. By unliterally scrapping the core of
its social contract with the Himalayan region, and forcibly suppressing local dissent,
New Delhi has further undercut its ability to reach out to disgruntled Kashmiris and
likely pushed more youngsters to opt for the gun. If the BJP government is to con-
tain the insurgency in Kashmir, it needs to curtail its armed forces' impunity, end its
reliance on draconian laws and re-engage with Kashmiri leaders of all shades of
opinion-pro-India and separatist alike. For three decades, repression and humilia-
tion have been major drivers of Kashmir's uprising against the Indian state. Without
a change in policy, it will not only persist but likely grow. Violence will breed more
violence.
In the absence of direct channels of communication between India and Pakistan,
risks of a regional conflict will continue to mount, with potentially disastrous conse-
quences. Neither side wants a war, yet each is pursuing policies that heighten risks of
some form of confrontation. India's and Pakistan's top civilian and military leaders
should tone down inflammatory rhetoric, respect the ceasefire they have committed
to along Kashmir's Line of Control, and seek ways of progressively resuming bilat-
eral dialogue. India's international partners should do what they can to press the BJP
government to, at a minimum, soften its counter-insurgency approach in Kashmir and
allow political activity to resume. Meanwhile, Pakistan's international partners will
need to keep up pressure for it to stop supporting anti-India jihadists active in Jam-
mu and Kashmir. For both sides, reversing course might not be easy, but the stakes
in Kashmir are too high to ignore.
Srinagar/Brussels, 5 August 2020View entire presentation