Investor Presentaiton
eneva
Economic and Financial Performance
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SASB IN- EP -420a.1. Sensitivity of the
hydrocarbon reserve levels for the forecasting
of future price scenarios that take into account
a price in the carbon emissions: Reserves will
still need to be developed for fulfillment of the
gas-based thermal power contracts. The main
impact of the scenarios, however, will fall on
new projects in "greener" scenarios, oil loses
a lot of force and gas could either lose or gain,
depending upon the view taken concerning this
source in emissions reduction policies. The impact
of the division between the P1 and P2 reserves is
not addressed in our strategic planning or in the
activities that involve these scenarios.
Sensitivity of the reserves to prices by type of primary product and price scenario
Price/product scenario
Current policies
Scenario (base)
New policies scenario
Sustainable development
scenario
Proven reserves
Oil (MMbbls)
There is no forecast for oil in
the base scenario, this being
dependent upon certain M&A
operations
Acquisition of reserves has
become less attractive
Acquisition of reserves has
become less attractive
Gas (MMscf)
62.3 (there is no distance in
the long-term model and the
Strategic Planning between
proven and probable)
Relevant growth of reserves
in accordance with new
regulations in the area of gas
and an increase in demand
More timid growth of
reserves, due to the rise of
renewable sources
Probable reserves
Oil (MMbbls)
There is no forecast for oil in
the base scenario, this being
dependent upon certain M&A
operations
Acquisition of reserves has
become less attractive
Acquisition of reserves has
become less attractive
Gas (MMscf)
62.3 (there is no distance in
the long-term model and the
Strategic Planning between
proven and probable)
Relevant growth of reserves
in accordance with new
regulations in the area of gas
and an increase in demand
More timid growth of
reserves, due to the rise of
renewable sources
SASB IN- EP-420a.4. Discussion of how the
price and demand for hydrocarbons and/
or climate regulation influences the capital
expenditure strategy for the exploration,
acquisition and development of assets: Our price
forecasting is calculated using a long-term model,
according to different indexes: JKM (GNL), Henry
Hub (Natural Gas), Brent (Oil) and CIF-ARA (Coal). All
the forecasts are taken from Bloomberg, an average
of analysts, or a future curve. Our demand for these
products in a base-scenario considers, above all, the
2030 PDE, as well as other relevant sector studies
and the forecast macroeconomic aspects. However,
as well as the figures considered in the long-term
model, our Strategic Planning takes into account
other scenarios for application of the strategy.
These scenarios present different types of behavior
concerning demand for the products, considering
the different market behaviors - with the capital
expenditure being directed according to consumer
trends. Climate regulation, with initiatives such
as taxation on carbon emissions, although not
considered in the premises of price and demand
used in the base-scenario, is an important driver,
that is modulated in the other fiscal years.
The price and demand scenarios - be they the base
scenario or those used for other fiscal years - are
extremely important for our spending strategy.
The demand forecast for each product is one of
the main drivers for our choice of new projects. As
we have a wide range of future projects in which
we may have expenses, the demand helps us to
decide upon our movements. A rise in the demand
for industrial gas could, for example, mean that
we prioritize marketing projects. A more restrictive
regulation of the climate, could possibly open up
more room for renewable projects. Our recent
entry into this market, moreover, demonstrates a
more incisive positioning in a greener future - be
it due to regulations or not. As such, in a scenario
that is more focused on sustainable development,
we will be more protected and less dependent on
assets using gas or coal sources. Furthermore, the
projects connected to exploration, acquisition and
development activities may also vary depending
upon market behavior in terms of price and
demand. Thermal projects are very closely linked
to energy demands, which, in turn, have a close
relationship with macro-economic factors.
sustainability report 2021
annexes
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