Decarbonizing Maritime Transport
Global agricultural fundamentals set to remain positive
Global crop prices rally setting the tone for a bullish 2021
160
140
120
100
Corn
Soy
Wheat
Corn + 27% since Jan at $5.53
Soy +17% since Jan at $14.15
Wheat +6% @ $6.38
China doubles corn imports with large purchases from the US
■ Ukraine
■ USA ■Laos
■Myanmar
■Other
24
20
16
Chinese corn prices have surged as China rebuilds
its swine herd. Most of the increase in imports is
sourced from the US and given the arbitrage to
import corn, further growth is expected in 2021
+95%
80
60
40
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-20
Jan-21
Nitrogen affordability remains positive despite price rally
115
95
75
55
35
Urea
DAP
MOP
Higher fertilizer prices offset by
crop prices rising at faster pace.
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21
OCI
(3) Crop prices as of 29-March-2021.
Source: OCI Analysis, CRU, Bloomberg,
affordable
Less
More
affordable
12
8
4
0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
High crop prices in Brazil supports urea affordability and demand
50
30
10
тим
Notes (1) Fertilizer Affordability is calculated as a ratio of fertilizer prices to a basket of crop prices. More favorable affordability levels driven by crop prices rising faster than nitrogen values
(2) Urea Barter ratio is a measure of affordability in Brazil. It is calculated as a ratio of the price of a 60 kg bag of corn vs the price of a tonne of urea
High corn prices indicate to improving fertilizer
affordability in Brazil, supportive urea demand.
Safrinha delays raised imports in Q1 2021 and
farmers to plant intended acreage - up 3% y/y
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Less
affordable
affordable
More
19View entire presentation