Insurgency Success Factors and Rebel Legitimacy
casualties. However, by the end of the war, civilian casualties were estimated to be between
50,000 and 100,000241. Additionally, while Dudayev and Maskhadov attempted to adhere to the
rules of war, two large scale hostage crises were produced by rebel leaders. In both crises,
civilians were used by the rebels as shields against oncoming Russian militia²42. The high
number of casualties, despite cease-fire negotiations and peace agreements, contributed to a
sense of failure and reduced legitimacy of the de facto government's ability to protect Chechen
civilians.
Maskhadov's failure to establish economic, social, or political control after the First
Chechen War, further contributed to a sense of failure and protection of the government. The war
destroyed houses and businesses, produced casualties, and left hundreds of thousands of civilians
in need of services and assistance 243. Civilians and soldiers who lost houses, suffered injuries,
and faced other challenges of war anticipated assistance the government did not have the
capacity to provide 244. The de facto government proved largely ineffective in providing basic
support to soldiers, injured civilians, internally displaced persons, and returning refugees 245
Inability to provide services that could protect and service needy civilians reduced civilian
perceptions of the rebellion as a legitimate protector and political force.
The Second Chechen War presented even greater challenges to rebel ability to protect
civilians. The increasingly brutal policies of the Russian military under Putin's command, lack of
cease-fires, and virtual absence of media influenced rebel leaders to pursue harsher, guerilla
warfare type tactics 246. The Second Chechen War produced a rise in rebel-initiated terrorism, of
which civilians were often casualties 247. Rebel disregard for civilian casualties reduced the
effectiveness of rebel claims that they were fighting to support and protect civilian lives. Greater
movement towards guerilla warfare also brought war increasingly out of battlegrounds and into
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