Property Marketing and Sales Review
COLIPPO
PT LIPPO KARAWACI TOK
Macro Environment & Outlook Trending Positive
Indonesia's macro environment remains accommodative with low interest rates, a stable currency, increased mobility, and strong commodity
prices. Bank Indonesia has been less aggressive than EM peers in cutting interest rates and this has created an attractive operating
environment. This was further supported by regulatory relaxation with the removal of VAT taxes and speeding up the timing of mortgage
disbursement by banks to property companies. The 0% VAT regulation which effectively translates to 0-10% discount should somewhat affect
demand for existing inventory (~Rp1.5tn are estimated to be impacted by this regulation). In addition, new regulations on mortgage
disbursement has resulted in increased cash flows from banks releasing mortgage funds at origination.
Indonesia's property industry is expanding as accommodative policy, focus on middle income customers, rising average selling prices are
supporting industry expansion. Accommodative policy as mentioned above is lowering the cost to buy through VAT reductions, increasing the
liquidity of property company's by tightening the cash collection cycle and mortgage rates are at historical low levels helping to lower the debt
servicing ratio for buyers. The industry continues to focus on middle income consumers by offering products that are affordable to the
burgeoning middle class in Indonesia. We would note that in the last 9 months it is the first period of rising home prices in nearly a decade.
Macro Outlook - Accomodative, Not too Aggressive
Property Market Outlook
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Red Dot Position End of Jan 2020
Blue Line: Position End of Sep 2021
Chile
Poland
Thailand
60
12
50
53 11.36
11.08
40
11
10.80
30
10.14
10.17
10
9.69
9:39
43 934
20
912
8.85
963
9
8
7
6
(10)
(20)
8 8 8
Source: BIS
Among EM peers Indonesia was relatively conservative in
lowering interest rates since Jan 2020, supporting currency
appreciation over the past 16 months. Implying global tightening
may have limited fund flow pressure
Bl average mortgage rate -YOY ASP growth (%, RHS)
Source: Peer data and
Historically low mortgage rates are making home ownership
accessible to middle class. After pricing troughed, we are seeing
Average Selling Prices (ASP) rise for the first time in ~10 yrs.
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