Emirates NBD Financial Performance Q1 2020
UAE: 2020 GDP forecast revised down
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Highlights
COVID-19 causing significant economic impact on global economy,
leading to lower GDP growth
The IMF has revised down the annual UAE GDP growth forecast for
this year to -3.5% compared to 1.3% expected in 2019. However the
uncertainty around the economic impact of C-19 remains high
Tourism, hospitality, transportation, logistics, trade, construction and
real estate are all anticipated to be adversely affected
Residential real estate prices have fallen steadily and further softening
is expected during the year
The OPEC agreement reached in April is expected to result in a sharp
contraction in oil production this year. Negative oil prices reflect the
distortion in market and are expected to remain highly volatile
UAE GDP growth
6.0
% y/y growth
4.0
UAE oil production and prices
mn b/d
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 29 30 32
90
80
70
60
50
3.1
3.1 3.1 3.1
3.0
20
10
2322O
40
30
2.4
Q1 Q2 Q3
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Q4
2017
2018
UAE oil output (LHS)
2019
Brent oil (RHS)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2020
Residential property prices
50
% y/y growth
Dubai
Abu Dhabi
40
5.1
2.0
4.4
3.0
0.5
1.7
1.3
133
0.0
-2.0
-3.5
30
3.3
20
10
0
-10
-4.0
-20
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 2019e* 2020f* 2021f*
Source: Bloomberg, BIS, IMF forecasts
USD/b
Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Economic Environment 23View entire presentation