Investor Presentaiton
36
GAS/LNG GLOBAL BALANCE OUTLOOK
YOY TRENDS 2024 VS 2023
BULLISH FACTORS
SHORTER MARKET
PRICE/VOLATILITY UP
BEARISH FACTORS
LONGER MARKET
PRICE/VOLATILITY DOWN
€/MWh
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
О
Jan/21 Jan/22 Jan/23 Jan/24 Jan/25 Jan/26
ASIAN DEMAND RECOVERY: SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
THE GLOBAL LNG BALANCE
LNG SUPPLY: FEW START-UPS AND RAMP-UPS AND
POSSIBLE DELAYS/DISRUPTIONS
EU DEMAND: SLIGHT INCREASE IN INDUSTRY AND
BUILDINGS VS. 2023 LEVELS (MILD WEATHER)
RUS/UKR
FLOWS:
TERMINATION
OF
TRANSIT
AGREEMENT BY END 2024, INCREASE OF DEMAND FOR
GAS/LNG STOCKS BUILD UP
GEOPOLITICS
EU STORAGE: VERY HIGH LEVELS @MAR24 (IN LINE
WITH RECORD LEVELS OF MAR23)
EU G2P DEMAND: DECREASING DUE TO STEADILY
INCREASING RES VS. 2023
NORWEGIAN PRODUCTION: HIGHER DUE TO LOWER
OUTAGES VS. PRODUCTION DISRUPTIONS IN SUMMER
2023
€/MWh
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
2/1
222
WE EXPECT 2024 TO BE A YEAR WITH REDUCED BUT STILL PERSISTENT VOLATILITY, WHERE THE MAGNITUDE OF
UNCERTAINTIES WEIGHTS HEAVILY ON THE THINLY BALANCED MARKET
%
TTF spot
TTF fwd dec22
TTF fwd Mar24
9/1 16/1 23/1 30/1 6/2 13/2 20/2 27/2
PSV spot (2024)
100
European storage % filling level
60
88820
O
Range GY18-21
GY22
Apr
May
. լու
.unc
Aug
Sep
Avg GY18-21
GY23View entire presentation