Malayan Banking Berhad Financial Analysis slide image

Malayan Banking Berhad Financial Analysis

FY2023: Moderating Economic Outlook; Slowing Interest Rate Hike Cycle Malaysia لال Singapore Indonesia 2022 GDP 8.7% 2023 (f) 4.0% 2022 2023 (f) 2022 2023 (f) GDP 3.6% 1.7% GDP 5.3% 5.0% System loan 5.7% 4.8% System loan (2.1)%* 1.0%* System loan 11.0% 9.5% OPR 2.75% 2.75% -3.00% 3M SIBOR 4.25% 4.80% Reference Rate 5.50% 5.75% USD/MYR^ 4.40 Inflation average 3.3% 4.00 3.0% USD/SGD^ 1.34 1.29 USD/IDR^ 15,573 14,200 Inflation average 6.1% 6.0% Inflation average 4.2% 4.2% Economic outlook Economic outlook • • • • Economic growth is expected to moderate as external trade growth slows. Domestic demand is set to soften as pent-up spending dissipates Growth will be supported by recovery in international tourism, economic re-opening in China and positive FDI inflows OPR could potentially return to pre- pandemic levels Banking outlook • Loan growth is anticipated to moderate alongside slower economic growth NIM may come under pressure from deposit repricing and increased competition • • • Economic growth will likely be slower on weakening external demand in major advanced economies Growth from sectors such as hospitality, aviation, retail, recreation and construction to help cushion the slowdown Core inflation to remain elevated and potential tightening of monetary policy in 2023 Banking outlook Moderate loan growth supported by North Asia's reopening and higher mortgage drawdowns NIM to continue rising, albeit at a slower rate. Asset yields expected to outpace funding costs following interest rate hikes ^End-period *Based on refreshed MAS disclosure of resident and non-resident lending, excluding interbank Economic outlook • . Economic growth to remain stable supported by steady domestic demand Inflation is anticipated to remain elevated on higher transport costs Bank Indonesia to focus on supporting growth Banking outlook . • Loan growth to be driven by higher demand for working capital and investment NIM pressure may persist on higher funding costs and increased competition 12
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