Malayan Banking Berhad Financial Analysis
FY2023: Moderating Economic Outlook; Slowing Interest Rate Hike Cycle
Malaysia
لال
Singapore
Indonesia
2022
GDP
8.7%
2023 (f)
4.0%
2022
2023 (f)
2022
2023 (f)
GDP
3.6%
1.7%
GDP
5.3%
5.0%
System loan
5.7%
4.8%
System loan
(2.1)%*
1.0%*
System loan
11.0%
9.5%
OPR
2.75%
2.75% -3.00%
3M SIBOR
4.25%
4.80%
Reference Rate
5.50%
5.75%
USD/MYR^
4.40
Inflation average
3.3%
4.00
3.0%
USD/SGD^
1.34
1.29
USD/IDR^
15,573
14,200
Inflation average
6.1%
6.0%
Inflation average
4.2%
4.2%
Economic outlook
Economic outlook
•
•
•
•
Economic growth is expected to moderate
as external trade growth slows. Domestic
demand is set to soften as pent-up spending
dissipates
Growth will be supported by recovery in
international tourism, economic re-opening
in China and positive FDI inflows
OPR could potentially return to pre-
pandemic levels
Banking outlook
•
Loan growth is anticipated to moderate
alongside slower economic growth
NIM may come under pressure from deposit
repricing and increased competition
•
•
•
Economic growth will likely be slower on
weakening external demand in major advanced
economies
Growth from sectors such as hospitality,
aviation, retail, recreation and construction to
help cushion the slowdown
Core inflation to remain elevated and potential
tightening of monetary policy in 2023
Banking outlook
Moderate loan growth supported by North Asia's
reopening and higher mortgage drawdowns
NIM to continue rising, albeit at a slower rate.
Asset yields expected to outpace funding costs
following interest rate hikes
^End-period
*Based on refreshed MAS disclosure of resident and non-resident lending, excluding interbank
Economic outlook
•
.
Economic growth to remain stable supported
by steady domestic demand
Inflation is anticipated to remain elevated
on higher transport costs
Bank Indonesia to focus on supporting
growth
Banking outlook
.
•
Loan growth to be driven by higher demand
for working capital and investment
NIM pressure may persist on higher funding
costs and increased competition
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