Investor Presentaiton
Canadian Housing Market
From a "soft landing” to a “gentle rebound"
Price Growth by Dwelling Type¹,3
• Canada: The effects of recent adjustments to federal and provincial
policy measures that slowed the market look to be waning:
。 Prior to flat national-level sales in October 2019, home purchases
had risen in seven consecutive months—the first time since 20091
。 Average sales prices and the composite MLS Home Price Index²
are trending higher (top chart)
Sales-to-new listings ratio reached to 63.7% in October 2019, a
rate just shy of sellers' market territory
Greater Toronto: Sales have increased in six of the past eight months,
rising 23% over that period. The market is in broadly balanced
territory, but this is the tightest it has been since early 2017
• Greater Vancouver: Sales have climbed six times in the last seven
months, gained almost 80% since their trough in March 2019, and
regained nearly half of the 66% drop from their February 2016 peak
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15
10
5
-5
16
Single Family
• Townhouse
Apartment
⚫ Composite
MLS Home Price
Index, aggregate,
y/y % change
17
18
19
Toronto & Vancouver Home Sales 1,3
140
home sales, 000s of units
annualized, SA
Greater Toronto
Canada1,
Sales (% change)
Sept-19
Oct-19
Oct-19
120
m/m*
m/m*
y/y**
1.3
0.0
12.9
100
New listings (% change)
-1.8
-1.8
-5.8
Average price (% change)
80
1.1
0.1
5.2
Sept-19
Oct-19
Sales-to-new listings ratio (level)*
62.6
63.7
Months inventory (level)*
4.5
4.4
*Seasonally adjusted **Not seasonally adjusted
60
Greater Vancouver
40
20
1 Sales and listings figures reported in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms, while MLS HPI growth rates reported as non-seasonally-adjusted y/y.
2 Measure of real estate price appreciation that removes distortions related to variations in the mix of sales across unit types.
0
3 Sources for charts and table: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
10
11
11
12
12
Actual
-10-year avg.
13
14
15
16 17 18 19
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