UAE Economic Update

Dubai Economic Update Highlights • • = Dubai's economy grew 3.2% in 2012, driven mainly by manufacturing, which accounts for about 13% of Dubai's GDP. Non-oil foreign trade also held up better than we had expected in Q4 2012, and services sectors showed strong growth. We expect GDP growth to accelerate to 3.9% in 2013, as the real estate sector continues to recover and construction is no longer a drag on growth. Manufacturing, tourism and hospitality are likely to benefit from strong regional demand. Non-oil trade with other GCC countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are likely to continue to offset any weakness in trade with Europe and the US. Dubai: Real GDP growth Y-o-y growth % Emirates NBD 5.0% 3.9% 4.0% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% 2008 -2.4% 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f Source: Emirates NBD Research, Dubai Statistics Centre Dubai GDP - Composition by Sector, and Sector Growth Dubai GDP by Sector-2011 (AED 100 bn) Fin Hotels 4% Servcs. 10% Trans. & comm. Trade 29% 50.0 0.0 ཨི 2011 2012e 2013f 13% Manuf. 13% RE Other 20% 11% -50.0 Agriculture, Livestock and Fishery Construction Real Estate and Business services Non profit organisations Agriculture, Livestock and Fishery Source: Dubai Statistics Centre, Haver Analytics Mining and Quarrying Wholesale, retail, maintenance ■Social and personal services Domestic Services (households) ■Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing ■Restaurants and hotels Financial Services imputed bank services ■Manufacturing ■Utilities (Electricity and water) Transport, Storage, Communication Government services GDP Utilities (Electricity and water) 6

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