Financial & Operating Performance
Appendix
Strategy
Financial & Operating Performance |
2.0
M bpd
2.2
3.0
Emirates NBD Profile
Operating Environment
UAE Economic Update
Highlights
Oil production declined -1.6% y/y in 2017 to 2.91mn bpd, higher
than the OPEC agreed target of 2.87mn. To the extent that we had
factored in the lower oil production number in our GDP growth
forecast, there is an upside risk to our 2.0% 2017 GDP growth
estimate. We expect growth to accelerate to 3.4% in 2018
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the UAE
declined to 56.8 in January from 57.7 in December, signaling solid
albeit slightly slower non-oil sector growth at the start of 2018.
Oil Price and UAE oil production
3.2
2.8
2.6
2.4
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
$1-120
Jan-16
Jan-16
Apr-16
UAE Oil Production (LHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
ICE Brent (RHS)
Jul-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
25
75
100
125
60
USD per barrel
60
50
52
62
54
99
56
58
Real GDP growth forecasts
Emirates NBD
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017F
2018F
S. Arabia
2.7
3.7
4.1
1.7
-0.5
2.5
UAE
4.7
3.3
3.8
3.0
2.0
3.4
Qatar
4.0
3.5
3.3
2.0
2.5
3.0
Kuwait
1.1
0.5
0.6
3.5
-1.2
2.1
Oman
4.4
2.5
4.7
5.4
1.0
2.3
Bahrain
5.4
4.4
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
GCC (average)
3.3
3.2
3.6
2.5
0.6
2.8
Egypt
2.1
2.9
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.9
Jordan
2.8
3.1
2.4
2.0
2.8
3.0
Lebanon
3.0
1.8
1.5
2.4
3.1
3.3
Tunisia
2.9
2.3
0.8
1.1
2.1
3.3
Morocco
4.4
2.7
4.5
1.2
4.3
3.7
MENA (average) 2.8
2.7
3.8
3.1
3.7
4.4
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
UAE PMI - Non oil private sector activity
50
Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16 Sep 16 Jan 17 May 17 Sep 17 Jan 18
Source: Markit / Emirates NBD
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