TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS Earnings Update
Macro and commodity overview
Global GDP growth trend
Commodity price trend
TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS
Tea Prices
%
24.5
247
233
$c/KG
Coffee Prices
236
$c/ LB
194
194
20.3
180
8.5
6.6
8.8
3.0
0.68
12.2
1.6
0.5
6.9
0.5
4.9
5.5 5.4
-9.1
-2.9 0
04.2
4.0
215
/KG
128
188
187
158
111
149
-2.0
-7.4
-7.7
-5.0
145
KG
-21.1
122
115
100
102
$c/ LB
103
62
62
-24.4
Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22E
UK GDP growth
-India GDP growth
- US GDP growth
Q4 FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22
Q3FY22 Q4FY22
Q4 FY20
Q4 FY21
Q4 FY22
North India Tea
Kenya Tea
South India Tea
Arabica Coffee
Robusta Coffee
India's GDP growth for the quarter got impacted due to the third wave of the
pandemic. However, recovery was sharp led by a faster opening up. Persistent
and unprecedented inflation across consumer categories is a key monitorable
going forward.
US & UK GDP growth estimates remain strong led by low unemployment level,
pickup in labor force participation, improved corporate profits and investments.
Monetary tightening and inflation which has been exacerbated by the geopolitical
situation remain the key watch-outs going forward.
•
°
The tea prices in India have come off significantly from the peak levels. South India tea prices
saw a slight uptick sequentially but were down significantly YOY.
Kenya tea prices continued to rise QoQ and YOY led by the minimum reserve regime
introduced by the Government.
Arabica and Robusta coffee prices climbed to new highs, led by bad weather and supply chain
disruptions caused by geopolitical developments.
Source: North India and South India tea auction (Tea Board of India) | Mombasa tea auction (EATTA) | International Coffee Exchange
Source: BCG, NSO, tradingeconomics.com and Kotak Institutional Research
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