Investor Presentaiton
Interest Rate Sensitivity
NET INTEREST INCOME SENSITIVITY
Impact of an immediate and sustained 100 bps parallel
shift on net interest income (NII) over a 12-month
period
+100 bps: $28 million decrease in NII
-100 bps: $4 million increase in NII
Above estimates assume a static balance sheet and no
management actions¹
Q/Q: Maintained stable sensitivity to protect from
rates remaining higher for longer
Rate Change by BNS
Fiscal Quarters (bps)
POLICY RATE CHANGE AND OUTLOOK
Policy
rate
on
US
Peru
0.25% +300 +125
Mexico 4.75% +450 +125 +75
Colombia 2.50% +850 +175 +50
1.50% +550 +75
+50
+50
•
NII benefit if market implied forward rates are realized
Chile
2.75% +850
-100
Forecast Policy Rate²
-Current-
Oct FY
YTD Policy Dec Mar Jun Sep
Country 31/21 2022 Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Rate 30/23 29/24 28/24 30/24
Canada 0.25% +350 +75
+50
5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 4.75% 4.25%
5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.25% 4.75%
11.25% 11.00% 10.00% 9.25% 8.75%
13.25% 12.25% 10.25% 8.25% 6.75%
7.75% 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% 5.50%
10.25% 7.50% 6.00% 4.00% 4.00%
N WA UO
HISTORICAL INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT AND OUTLOOK 3
Canada & US (%)
13.0
11.0
9.0
7.0
Mexico & Chile (%)
2.0
5.0
1.0
0.0
3.0
Jul-22
Jan-23
Jul-23
BoC Overnight Rate
Fed Funds Rate
Jan-24
CAD 5-Yr Swap Rate
- USD 5-Yr Swap Rate
Jul-24
Jul-22
Jan-23
Bank of Mexico Overnight Rate
Bank of Chile Monetary Policy Rate
Jul-23
Jan-24
MXN 5-Yr Swap Rate
CLP 5-Yr Swap Rate
Jul-24
1 Additional detail regarding non-trading interest rate sensitivity can be found on page 38 of the Management's Discussion & Analysis in the Bank's Third Quarter 2023 Report to Shareholders, available on
http://www.sedarplus.ca
2 Source: Scotia Economics. US and Canada forecast as at July 20, 2023, Pacific Alliance countries forecast as at August 11, 2023
3 As at August 18, 2023
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