Investor Presentaiton
National Economic Growth Improved
Strong GDP Growth¹
%
7.0
QoQ
YoY
5.124.944.935.054.824.744.775.174.925.185.014.945.015.015.065.195.065.275.175.185.075.055.024.97
5.0
3.27
3.31
3.14
3.0
1.0 0.04
4.013.19
3.09
3.06
2.97
5.05
-1.0
(0.16)
(0.36)
(0.30)
(0.41)
-3.0
(2.07)
(1.73)
(1.81)
(1.70)
(0.52)
(1.69)
(4.19)
(3.49)
(1.74)
(2.41)
(532)
-5.0
-7.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2014
2015
2016
2017
Favourable GDP Growth Compared to Peers²
%
10.00
5.00
2018
2019
2020
8.80
7.40
6.10
•
National economic growth improved in the third quarter of 2020 in response to
increasing realisation of government stimuli along with early signs of greater
public mobility and stronger global demand. Indonesia's economy grew 5.05%
(qtq) in the third quarter of 2020, rebounding from a 4.19% (qtq) contraction in
the previous period. Annually, a shallower 3.49% (yoy) contraction pointed to
domestic economic improvements after contracting 5.32% (yoy) in the second
quarter of 2020.
• Domestic economic gains occurred across nearly all GDP components on the
expenditure side. Higher realisation of government stimuli, primarily in the form of
social assistance disbursements, procurement of goods and services as well as
regional transfers and village fund disbursements, raised government consumption
significantly in the third quarter of 2020, expanding 9.76% (yoy) after contracting
6.9% (yoy) in the second quarter of 2020. Furthermore, government stimuli and
increasing public mobility have reduced the household consumption contraction
to 4.04% (yoy). Investment is also performing better, recording a shallower 6.48%
(yoy) contraction, primarily on the back of nonbuilding investment. In addition, the
export contraction also improved to 10.82% (yoy) in line with increasing public
mobility and stronger economic performance in Indonesia's main trading partners,
China in particular.
• The recent economic gains were felt across most sectors, led by those
associated with health as well as work-from-home and school-from-home
activities, which maintained positive growth, including Information and
Communications, Health and Social Services as well as Education Services.
Moreover, greater public mobility has prompted moderate gains in terms of
Accommodation and Food Service Activities as well as Transportation and
Storage, both of which experienced shallower contractions. In addition, the
Manufacturing Industry, Construction and Trade posted gains.
0.00
-5.00
-10.00
-15.00
Bulgaria
Indonesia
Colombia
Philippines
India
4.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018
**
2019
2020 2021*
1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), Including non-profit household consumption
Source: World Economic Outlook Database - October 2020; * indicates estimated figure
2.
Growth Prospect
Institutions
2020 GDP
growth (%YoY)
2020 Budget (Presidential Regulation 72/2020)
-0,4-1,0
Bank Indonesia
0,9-1,9
IMF (WEO October 2020)
-1.5
World Bank (Indonesia Economic Prospects, Dec 2020)
-2.5
ADB (ADOS December 2020)
-2.2
Consensus Forecast (December 2020)
-2.0
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