Key Financial Indicators and Balance Sheet Analysis Q1 2023 slide image

Key Financial Indicators and Balance Sheet Analysis Q1 2023

Residential mortgages Low default rates and comfortable LTV levels, but increased risk due to rising costs for borrowers Macroprudential measures: Loan-to-value capped at 80% (85% for first-time buyers, which was already applied by Arion) Residential mortgages by interest rate type (ISK bn) Nominal rate loans are 59% of the mortgage portfolio at end of Q1 2023. Demand for indexed loans is picking up again. Interest rate reset profile for fixed rate mortgages (ISK bn) The bulk of fixed nominal rate loans are reset in 2024 and 2025. 514 520 464 90 77 82 80 64 -40% -41% 379 -36% 70 127 132 71 103 60 -49% 50 113 Debt service-to-income < 35% (40% for first-time buyers). In June 2022, the Central Bank introduced prescribed minimum interest rates for debt-service which primarily affects indexed loans. 159 155 40 166 30 -64% -60% -59% 127 20 -51% 151 150 130 10 67 0 31.12.2020 31.12.2021 31.12.2022 31.03.2023 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 >2027 ■Fixed nominal ■Floating nominal Fixed indexed ■Floating indexed Nominal rates ■Indexed rates Affects mostly first time buyers and higher loan applications Furthermore, the Bank has adjusted its criteria for household expenditures in its payment assessment taking into account rising cost of living. Internal stress test of fixed nominal portfolio shows that if interest rates remain high into 2025, up to one third of borrowers need to seek lower monthly payments, e.g. through refinancing to indexed loans. In this stress test floating nominal rates reach a maximum of 10.7% Rate of defaults and payments past due Non-performing loans are 0.9% of the mortgage portfolio, the same level as before Covid-19. Loans past due are relatively stable. 1,2% 1,0% Loan to value distribution 1 Loan-to-value below 80% accounts for 86% of the mortgage portfolio. 40% 35% 34% 0,8% 30% 25% 0,6% The stress test reveals that, following refinancing to lower debt servicing, further measures may be needed for 0.5-1% of borrowers 20% 19% 18% 0,4% 16% 15% 13% 0,2% 10% 0,0% 09.2022 10.2022 11.2022 12.2022 01.2023 02.2023 03.2023 5% 30 days past due 90 days past due 60 days past due •Problem loans 0% Less than 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 50% 19 1. Total exposure of a loan is in one bracket 1% More than 90%
View entire presentation