1H24 Financial Results
New Zealand
Slowing economy, headwinds impacting
USD Dairy prices undergone a modest recovery
Global dairy trade auction results¹ (USD/tonne)
Growth is softening as headwinds bite
NZ GDP growth (annual average)²
%
Slowing growth likely to generate labour market
slack
NZ unemployment rate³
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
سماء
GDT overall price
Whole Milk Powder
-1
-2
1,000
6543210123
%
8
7
6
5
4
3
-3
2
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
(f)
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027
House prices are on the rise, worsening affordability
NZ median house price7 (3 month moving average)
OCR increases have likely finished
OCR Forecasts (ASB forecast and implied market pricing)
Mortgage lending conditions remain tight
NZ household lending growth (annual change)
%
%
$ 000's
8.0
20
1400
7.0
OCR implied by current market pricing5
Mortgage lending
15
1200
6.0
10
1000
5.0
5
4.0
800
0
3.0
600
-5
2.0
1.0
ASB Forecast
Consumer credit
-10
400
-0.1
-15
200
Jun 14
Jun 16
Jun 18
Jun 20
Jun 22
Jun 24
Jun 26
Jun 11
Jun 14
Jun 17
Jun 20
Jun 23
Auckland
Wellington
NZ
Canterbury/Westland
Jun 09 Jun 11 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun 17 Jun 19 Jun 21 Jun 23
1. Source: GlobalDairyTrade. 2. Source: Statistics NZ/ASB. 3. Source: Statistics NZ/ASB. 4. Source: ASB. 5. Bloomberg, as at 5 February 2024. 6. Source: RBNZ. 7. Source: REINZ.
141View entire presentation