Investor Presentaiton
Macroeconomic update
-
Economic rebound set to continue in 2022, albeit at slower pace
2021
2022
Real GDP growth (in %)
Dom. demand contribution* (in %)
Net export contribution* (in %)
Consumer price inflation (avg, in %)
7.4
10.4
6.2
5.3
9.6
5.5
5.4
7.1
4.9
4.8 5.0
7.5
7.2
2.1
4.3
1.7
6.3
5.6
3.9
5.4
3.7
0.6
0.4
5.0 5.1
4.8 4.3
4.6
2.5
3.9 3.8
☐
3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0
3.2
-0.5
-0.9
-0.5 -0.8
-0.4 2.8
3.2
3.8
2.6
1.1
-2.3
-1.8
AT CZ SK RO HU HR
AT
CZ SK
RO
HU
HR
AT
CZ SK RO HU
HR
AT CZ SK RO HU HR
•
•
CEE & AT have demonstrated resilience in 2021; strong performance expected to continue with 2022 GDP growth of ~3-5% in CEE & AT
Economies mostly driven by investments while supply chain issues have impacted industrial output
.
Strong economic recovery has been accompanied by visibly higher inflation; inflationary pressure expected to slightly ease in H2 2022
Unemployment rate (avg, in %) Current account balance (% of GDP)
Public debt (% of GDP)
Gen gov balance (% of GDP)
2.9
2.2
83
7.8
0.8
1.1
0.3
7.0 6.5
6.8
6.2
5.2
5.5 5.3
-0.8
4.1 3.8
79
78 75
81
78
63 62
50 50
60
-1.1 -0.7
42 43
-2.5
-2.9
2.9 2.7
-2.9 -3.1
-4.1 -4.0
-4.5
-5.1
-6.2
-6.0
-6.2
-6.8
-6.5
-7.3
-7.1
-7.8
AT
CZ SK RO
HU HR
AT CZ SK RO HU HR
AT CZ SK RO HU HR
AT
CZ
SK
RO HU
HR
•
• Unemployment rates expected to decline in CEE & AT in 2022
•
Fiscal deficits positively impacted by stronger tax revenues due to cyclical rebound and phasing out of covid-19 support in 2022
* Contribution to real GDP growth. Domestic demand contribution includes inventory change. Source: Erste Group Research, EU Commission
ERSTEŚ
Group
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