Investor Presentaiton
AURIZON.
2021 INVESTOR DAY
Free Cash Flow scenarios1
Under the scenarios tested, modelling indicates average annual free cash flow over 20 years of
-$500-$650m
AURIZON FREE CASH FLOW ($M)
COAL VOLUME SCENARIO4
$734
$704
$669
$715
$700
2 Current Economics
$100
$165
3
Port Constrained
Х
Х
Х
Х
4
Mine / regulatory constrained Australia
~$500-$650m
5
Carbon constrained Asia
$600
$550
6
Rapid Decarbonisation
FY17
FY18
Sale of Rail Grinding
FY19
FY20
FY21f
Underlying Free Cash Flow
Scenario
Avg.
FY22-
FY40
Sale of Acacia Ridge² X Dividends Paid³
1. As noted on slide 2 these are scenarios (and associated cash flow modelling) not predictions or forecasts and do not constitute definitive outcomes for Aurizon. It is difficult to predict which, if any, of these scenarios might eventuate. Further details of the scenarios,
assumptions and levers to model free cash flow are described in detail on slides 22-33.
2. Net of tax (Rail Grinding tax of $38m paid in FY21 and Acacia Ridge tax of $32m paid in FY21)
3. Dividends paid is shown during the period where the cash dividend was paid (rather than reporting period that the dividend was based on)
4. Commodity Strong scenario not modelled in detail but average annual (nominal) cash flows estimated to be greater than $650m over the period to FY40
33View entire presentation