Outlook Projection FY 2023-24

Tourism Recovery While all Florida industries were impacted by the pandemic-induced economic contraction, Florida's leisure and hospitality industry bore the brunt of the longer-term consequences. The total number of tourists plunged nearly -70.0 percent from the prior year in the second quarter of 2020. The magnitude of this loss caused the entire 2019-20 fiscal year to record a -19.1 percent decline in tourists. The damage continued in FY 2020-21, leading to an additional -7.2 percent loss from the prior year's already suppressed level-a combined -25.0 percent decline from the 2018-19 record-breaking year. By FY 2021-22, the outsized increase in domestic visitors offset some of the international losses, leading to growth of 39.4 percent over 2020-21 and growth of 4.6 percent over the prior peak. Slowly returning to a more normal mix of visitors in the midst of strong economic headwinds, the 2022-23 fiscal year will see growth of just 2.4 percent, with some strength returning in 2023-24 (4.4 percent growth). The annual growth rates moderate thereafter, gradually declining from 3.9 percent in 2024-25 to 3.1 percent in 2031-32. Notably, the new forecast levels never exceed the pre-pandemic forecast levels. The Legislative Office of Economic and Demographic Research has updated an empirical analysis of the various sources of the state's sales tax collections. In FY 2019-20, sales tax collections provided nearly $24.6 billion or 76.2% of Florida's total pandemic-reduced General Revenue collections for the year. Of this amount, an estimated 11.6% ($2.86 billion) was directly attributable to purchases made by tourists, primarily in the first two quarters of the year. By the last quarter of the year, much of the remaining spending activity had shifted to households. The 11.6% annual share for tourists was a steep drop from the 15.0% recorded in the prior year. Contributions to General Revenue from Sales Tax (with CST) Collections in FY 2019-20, By Source Tourists 11.6% Business 12.9% Households 75.5% 6

View entire presentation