RBC Business Segments and Market Strategy
Economic fundamentals remain solid despite energy headwinds
RBC
■ A modest recovery in crude oil prices is expected to contribute to headline inflation gradually drifting higher
through 2016 and reaching the mid-point of the Bank of Canada's 1-3% target range by year-end
■ Labour market resilience is expected to persist as a strengthening in economic activity supports ongoing
hiring gains with the unemployment rate expected to resume a modest downward trend through 2016
-
We have seen a rise in the unemployment rate of oil affected regions, with Alberta at 7.4% in January
2016 from 4.6% a year ago
■ Headwinds emanating from the pullback of oil prices point to further weakness in the oil & gas sector;
however, a strengthening U.S. economy and a weak Canadian currency are expected to be factors
supporting a modest pick-up in economic growth in Canada in 2016
14
Canadian Labour Markets (2)
5.0
7
Canadian Inflation (YoY%) (1)
13
6
12
5
4
3
2
Ари
11
10
9
1
8
0
7
-1
-2
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
5
Headline
Core
BoC Target
Employment growth
(YOY% - RHS)
1982
1984
1986
Economic Backdrop
(1) Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research. (2) Statistics Canada, Bureau of Labor Statistics, RBC Economics Research.
1988
1990
Unemployment rate
(% - LHS)
1992
3.0
1.0
-1.0
-3.0
-5.0
26View entire presentation