Investor Presentaiton
M bpd
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
UAE Oil production
OPEC oil price (rhs)
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
UAE Oil Production (Ihs)
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
UAE Economic Update
Highlights
.
2014 growth estimates revised upwards to 5%. Oil production has
been broadly stable in Q2 2014. Hydrocarbons is not expected to
contribute significantly to overall growth in 2014.
Non-oil sector expected to be main driver of UAE growth in 2014.
PMI data reached a record high in June, on the back of strong output
and new order growth, reflecting improved domestic and external
demand.
Inflation expected to accelerate to an average 3.0% in 2014 from an
average of 1.1% in 2013, on higher housing costs and rising input
prices.
Real GDP Growth Forecasts
UAE
Country
UK
US
Saudi
2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014F 2015F
3.2% -4.8% 1.6% 4.9% 4.7% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8%
China
9.6% 9.2% 10.4% 9.3% 7.7%
7.7% 7.0% 7.3%
Eurozone 0.4% -4.4% 2.0% 1.6% -0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 1.5%
2.1%
Hong Kong
-2.5% 6.8% 4.8% 1.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.5%
India
8.2% 6.6% 9.4% 7.7% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8% 5.5%
Japan
-1.0% -5.5% 4.7% -0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.5%
Singapore 1.9% -0.6% 15.4% 5.3% 2.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9%
-0.8% -5.2% 1.7% 1.1% 0.3% 1.7% 2.5% 2.0%
-0.3% -2.8% 2.5% 1.8% 2.8% 1.9% 3.0% 3.5%
8.4% 1.8% 7.4% 8.6% 5.8% 3.8% 4.7% 4.0%
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
140
59
2014 20
58
120
100
57
USD per barrel
56
55
g$$གྷཐ88
54
53
52
51
50
Jan-10
Mar-10
Source: Markit/HSBC
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
UAE PMI - Non Oil Private Sector Activity
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
4
Emirates NBDView entire presentation